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| Titel |
Extrapolating glacier mass balance to the mountain-range scale: the European Alps 1900–2100 |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Huss |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 6, no. 4 ; Nr. 6, no. 4 (2012-07-06), S.713-727 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003687
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-6-713-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study addresses the extrapolation of in-situ glacier mass balance
measurements to the mountain-range scale and aims at deriving time
series of area-averaged mass balance and ice volume change for all
glaciers in the European Alps for the period 1900–2100. Long-term
mass balance series for 50 Swiss glaciers based on a combination of
field data and modelling, and WGMS data for glaciers in Austria,
France and Italy are used. A complete glacier inventory is available
for the year 2003. Mass balance extrapolation is performed based on
(1) arithmetic averaging, (2) glacier hypsometry, and (3) multiple
regression. Given a sufficient number of data series, multiple
regression with variables describing glacier geometry performs best in
reproducing observed spatial mass balance variability. Future mass
changes are calculated by driving a combined model for mass balance
and glacier geometry with GCM ensembles based on four emission
scenarios. Mean glacier mass balance in the European Alps is
−0.31 ± 0.04 m w.e. a−1 in 1900–2011, and
−1 m w.e. a−1 over the last decade. Total ice volume change
since 1900 is −96 ± 13 km3; annual values vary between
−5.9 km3 (1947) and +3.9 km3 (1977). Mean mass balances are
expected to be around −1.3 m w.e. a−1 by 2050. Model
results indicate a glacier area reduction of 4–18% relative to
2003 for the end of the 21st century. |
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