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| Titel |
Reactivation hazard mapping for ancient landslides in West Belgium |
| VerfasserIn |
O. Dewitte, C.-J. Chung, A. Demoulin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 6, no. 4 ; Nr. 6, no. 4 (2006-07-21), S.653-662 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003616
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-6-653-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Several examples in western Europe have shown that, at least for deep-seated
rotational slides, reactivation of formerly slipped masses is a more
frequent phenomenon than the occurrence of new landslides, therefore
representing a higher hazard. We selected a study area comprised of 13
landslides located in the Flemish Ardennes (West Belgium) and predicted the
hazard related to scarp retreat. The scarp reactivations were identified
from the comparison of DTMs produced for 1952 and 1996. Robust results were
obtained with the Gamma operator of a fuzzy set approach and a combination
of geomorphic, topographic and land use data. We built first a prediction
model from the relations linking the 1952–1996 retreat events to the
conditioning parameters of 1952. The prediction rate of the resulting
susceptibility map is estimated by a cross-validation procedure. We then
applied the statistics of this model to the data of 1996 in order to produce
a susceptibility map responding to the present-day conditions. Finally, we
estimated the conditional probabilities of occurrence of future
reactivations for the period 1996–2036. |
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