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| Titel |
Avalanche risk assessment – a multi-temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Keiler, R. Sailer, P. Jörg, C. Weber, S. Fuchs, A. Zischg, S. Sauermoser |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 6, no. 4 ; Nr. 6, no. 4 (2006-07-19), S.637-651 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003615
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-6-637-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Snow avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructure in alpine
environments. Due to the catastrophic events in recent years, the public is
more aware of this phenomenon. Alpine settlements have always been
confronted with natural hazards, but changes in land use and in dealing with
avalanche hazards lead to an altering perception of this threat. In this
study, a multi-temporal risk assessment is presented for three avalanche
tracks in the municipality of Galtür, Austria. Changes in avalanche risk
as well as changes in the risk-influencing factors (process behaviour,
values at risk (buildings) and vulnerability) between 1950 and 2000 are
quantified. An additional focus is put on the interconnection between these
factors and their influence on the resulting risk.
The avalanche processes were calculated using different simulation models
(SAMOS as well as ELBA+). For each avalanche track, different scenarios were
calculated according to the development of mitigation measures. The focus of
the study was on a multi-temporal risk assessment; consequently the used
models could be replaced with other snow avalanche models providing the same
functionalities. The monetary values of buildings were estimated using the
volume of the buildings and average prices per cubic meter. The changing
size of the buildings over time was inferred from construction plans. The
vulnerability of the buildings is understood as a degree of loss to a given
element within the area affected by natural hazards. A vulnerability
function for different construction types of buildings that depends on
avalanche pressure was used to assess the degree of loss. No general risk
trend could be determined for the studied avalanche tracks. Due to the high
complexity of the variations in risk, small changes of one of several
influencing factors can cause considerable differences in the resulting
risk. This multi-temporal approach leads to better understanding of the
today's risk by identifying the main changes and the underlying processes.
Furthermore, this knowledge can be implemented in strategies for sustainable
development in Alpine settlements. |
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