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| Titel |
Seismic risk mapping for Germany |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Tyagunov, G. Grünthal, R. Wahlström, L. Stempniewski, J. Zschau |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 6, no. 4 ; Nr. 6, no. 4 (2006-06-29), S.573-586 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003610
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-6-573-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The aim of this study is to assess and map the seismic risk for Germany,
restricted to the expected losses of damage to residential buildings. There
are several earthquake prone regions in the country which have produced
Mw magnitudes above 6 and up to 6.7 corresponding to observed ground
shaking intensity up to VIII–IX (EMS-98). Combined with the fact that some
of the earthquake prone areas are densely populated and highly
industrialized and where therefore the hazard coincides with high
concentration of exposed assets, the damaging implications from earthquakes
must be taken seriously. In this study a methodology is presented and
pursued to calculate the seismic risk from (1) intensity based probabilistic
seismic hazard, (2) vulnerability composition models, which are based on the
distribution of residential buildings of various structural types in
representative communities and (3) the distribution of assets in terms of
replacement costs for residential buildings. The estimates of the risk are
treated as primary economic losses due to structural damage to residential
buildings. The obtained results are presented as maps of the damage and risk
distributions. For a probability level of 90% non-exceedence in 50 years
(corresponding to a mean return period of 475 years) the mean damage ratio
is up to 20% and the risk up to hundreds of millions of euro in the most
endangered communities. The developed models have been calibrated with
observed data from several damaging earthquakes in Germany and the nearby
area in the past 30 years. |
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