| An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been
pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related
behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to
overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is
quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A
novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive
quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation
practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit
quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation.
The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and
a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant
PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk,
knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and
subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an
individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The
quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts,
laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods.
The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an
expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of
an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and
weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility
and flexibility.
Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual
persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating
differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For
decision making processes this model will have to be applied with
caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk
acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach
may well explain how risk perception differs, but not
why it differs. The formal model generates only
"snap shots" and considers neither the socio-cultural nor the
historical context of risk perception, since it is a highly
individualistic and non-contextual approach. |