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| Titel |
Super-ensemble techniques applied to wave forecast: performance and limitations |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Lenartz, J.-M. Beckers, J. Chiggiato, B. Mourre, C. Troupin, L. Vandenbulcke, M. Rixen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1812-0784
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Ocean Science ; 6, no. 2 ; Nr. 6, no. 2 (2010-06-23), S.595-604 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003474
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/os-6-595-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Nowadays, several operational ocean wave forecasts are available for a same
region. These predictions may considerably differ, and to choose the best one
is generally a difficult task. The super-ensemble approach, which consists in
merging different forecasts and past observations into a single multi-model
prediction system, is evaluated in this study. During the DART06 campaigns
organized by the NATO Undersea Research Centre, four wave forecasting systems
were simultaneously run in the Adriatic Sea, and significant wave height was
measured at six stations as well as along the tracks of two remote sensors.
This effort provided the necessary data set to compare the skills of various
multi-model combination techniques. Our results indicate that a
super-ensemble based on the Kalman Filter improves the forecast skills: The
bias during both the hindcast and forecast periods is reduced, and the
correlation coefficient is similar to that of the best individual model. The
spatial extrapolation of local results is not straightforward and requires
further investigation to be properly implemented. |
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