 |
| Titel |
An integrated simulation method for flash-flood risk assessment: 1. Frequency predictions in the Bisagno River by combining stochastic and deterministic methods |
| VerfasserIn |
M. C. Rulli, R. Rosso |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 6, no. 2 ; Nr. 6, no. 2, S.267-284 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003459
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-6-267-2002.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| A stochastic rainfall
generator and a deterministic rainfall-runoff model, both distributed in space
and time, are combined to provide accurate flood frequency prediction in the
Bisagno River basin (Thyrrenian Liguria, N.W. Italy). The inadequacy of
streamflow records with respect to the return period of the required flow
discharges makes the stochastic simulation methodology a useful operational
alternative to a regionalisation procedure for flood frequency analysis and
derived distribution techniques. The rainfall generator is the Generalized
Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses (GNSRP) model. The rainfall-runoff model is the
FEST98 model. The GNSRP generator was calibrated using a continuous 7-years'
record of hourly precipitation measurements at five raingauges scattered over
the Bisagno basin. The calibrated rainfall model was then used to generate a
1000 years' series of continuous rainfall data at the gauging sites and a
flood-oriented model validation procedure was developed to evaluate the
agreement between observed and simulated extreme values of rainfall at different
scales of temporal aggregation. The synthetic precipitation series were input to
the FEST98 model to provide flood hydrographs at selected cross-sections across
the river network. Flood frequency analysis of the annual flood series (AFS)
obtained from these simulations was undertaken using L-moment estimations of
Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions. The results are compared with
those determined by applying a regional flood analysis in Thyrrhenian Liguria
and the derived distribution techniques to the Bisagno river basin. This
approach is also useful to assess the effects of changes in land use on flood
frequency regime (see Rosso and Rulli, 2002).
Keywords: flood frequency, stochastic rainfall generator, distributed
rainfall runoff model, derived distribution |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|