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| Titel |
A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650 |
| VerfasserIn |
S. McGregor, A. Timmermann, O. Timm |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 6, no. 1 ; Nr. 6, no. 1 (2010-01-05), S.1-17 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003321
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-6-1-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this manuscript we have attempted to consolidate the common signal in
previously defined proxy reconstructions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
into one individual proxy titled the Unified ENSO Proxy (UEP). While correlating
well with the majority of input reconstructions, the UEP provides better
representation of observed indices of ENSO, discrete ENSO events and documented
historical chronologies of ENSO than any of these input ENSO reconstructions.
Further to this, the UEP also provides a means to reconstruct the PDO/IPO
multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean as the low-pass filtered UEP
displays multi-decadal variability that is consistent with the 20th century
variability of the PDO and IPO. The UEP is then used to describe changes in
ENSO variability which have occurred since 1650 focusing on changes in ENSOs
variance, multi-year ENSO events, PDO-like multi-decadal variability and the
effects of volcanic and solar forcing on ENSO. We find that multi-year El
Niño events similar to the 1990–1995 event have occurred several times over
the last 3 1/2 centuries. Consistent with earlier studies we find that
volcanic forcing can induce a statistically significant change in the mean
state of ENSO in the year of the eruption and a doubling of the probability
of an El Niño (La Niña) event occurring in the year of (three years after) the eruption. |
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