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| Titel |
Landslide hazard assessment in the Collazzone area, Umbria, Central Italy |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Guzzetti, M. Galli, P. Reichenbach, F. Ardizzone, M. Cardinali |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 6, no. 1 ; Nr. 6, no. 1 (2006-01-31), S.115-131 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003286
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-6-115-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We present the results of the application of a recently proposed model to
determine landslide hazard. The model predicts where landslides will occur,
how frequently they will occur, and how large they will be in a given area.
For the Collazzone area, in the central Italian Apennines, we prepared a
multi-temporal inventory map through the interpretation of multiple sets of
aerial photographs taken between 1941 and 1997 and field surveys conducted
in the period between 1998 and 2004. We then partitioned the 79 square
kilometres study area into 894 slope units, and obtained the probability of
spatial occurrence of landslides by discriminant analysis of thematic
variables, including morphology, lithology, structure and land use. For each
slope unit, we computed the expected landslide recurrence by dividing the
total number of landslide events inventoried in the terrain unit by the time
span of the investigated period. Assuming landslide recurrence was constant,
and adopting a Poisson probability model, we determined the exceedance
probability of having one or more landslides in each slope unit, for
different periods. We obtained the probability of landslide size, a proxy
for landslide magnitude, by analysing the frequency-area statistics of
landslides, obtained from the multi-temporal inventory map. Lastly, assuming
independence, we determined landslide hazard for each slope unit as the
joint probability of landslide size, of landslide temporal occurrence, and
of landslide spatial occurrence. |
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