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| Titel |
The skill of empirical and combined/calibrated coupled multi-model South American seasonal predictions during ENSO |
| VerfasserIn |
C. A. S. Coelho, D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 1st Alexander von Humboldt International Conference ; Nr. 6 (2006-01-09), S.51-55 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003236
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-6-51-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study addresses seasonal predictability of South American rainfall
during ENSO. The skill of empirical and coupled multi-model predictions is
assessed and compared. The empirical model uses the previous season
August-September-October Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures as
predictors for December-January-February rainfall. Coupled multi-model
1-month lead December-January-February rainfall predictions were obtained
from the Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble system for seasonal
to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) project. Integrated (i.e. combined and
calibrated) forecasts that incorporate information provided by both the
empirical and the coupled multi-model are produced using a Bayesian
procedure. This procedure is referred to as forecast assimilation. The skill
of the integrated forecasts is compared to the skill of empirical and
coupled multi-model predictions. This comparison reveals that when
seasonally forecasting December-January-February South American rainfall at
1-month lead-time the current generation of coupled models have a level of
deterministic skill comparable to those obtained using simplified empirical
approaches. However, Bayesian combined/calibrated forecasts provide better
estimates of forecast uncertainty than the coupled multi-model. This
indicates that forecast assimilation improves the quality of probabilistic
predictions. The tropics and the area of South Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and
Northern Argentina are found to be the two most predictable regions of South
America. ENSO years are more predictable than neutral years, the latter
having nearly null skill. |
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