 |
| Titel |
The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Fuchs, M. Keiler, A. Zischg, M. Bründl |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 5, no. 6 ; Nr. 5, no. 6 (2005-11-09), S.893-901 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002884
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-5-893-2005.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|