The application of a flash-flood prediction chain, developed by CIMA, to
some testcases for the Tanaro river basin in the framework of the EU project
HYDROPTIMET is presented here. The components of the CIMA chain are:
forecast rainfall depths, a stochastic downscaling procedure and a
hydrological model.
Different meteorological Limited Area Models (LAMs) provide the rainfall
input to the hydrological component. The flash-flood prediction chain is run
both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic configuration. The
sensitivity of forecasting chain performances to different LAMs providing
rainfall forecasts is discussed. The results of the application show how the
probabilistic forecasting system can give, especially in the case of
convective events, a valuable contribution in addressing the uncertainty at
different spatio-temporal scales involved in the flash flood forecasting
problem in small and medium basins with complex orography. |