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| Titel |
Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models |
| VerfasserIn |
R. P. Daanen, T. Ingeman-Nielsen, S. S. Marchenko, V. E. Romanovsky, N. Foged, M. Stendel, J. H. Christensen, K. Hornbech Svendsen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 5, no. 4 ; Nr. 5, no. 4 (2011-11-24), S.1043-1056 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002758
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-5-1043-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and
permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the
gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other
technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to
climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the
current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically
with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We
develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined as the
potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface
alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful
for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will
result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in
Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of
application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of
Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP. |
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