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| Titel |
Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. Guðmundsson, H. Björnsson, F. Pálsson, T. Jóhannesson, H. Hannesdóttir, S. Þ. Sigurðsson, E. Berthier |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 5, no. 4 ; Nr. 5, no. 4 (2011-11-02), S.961-975 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002753
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-5-961-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Little Ice Age maximum extent of glaciers in Iceland was reached about
1890 AD and most glaciers in the country have retreated during the 20th century.
A model for the surface mass balance and the flow of glaciers is
used to reconstruct the 20th century retreat history of
Hoffellsjökull, a south-flowing outlet glacier of the ice cap
Vatnajökull, which is located close to the southeastern coast of
Iceland. The bedrock topography was surveyed with radio-echo soundings in
2001. A wealth of data are available to force and constrain the model, e.g.
surface elevation maps from ~1890, 1936, 1946, 1989, 2001, 2008 and
2010, mass balance observations conducted in 1936–1938 and after 2001,
energy balance measurements after 2001, and glacier surface velocity derived
by kinematic and differential GPS surveys and correlation of SPOT5 images.
The approximately 20% volume loss of this glacier in the period
1895–2010 is realistically simulated with the model. After calibration of
the model with past observations, it is used to simulate the future response
of the glacier during the 21st century. The mass balance model was
forced with an ensemble of temperature and precipitation scenarios derived
from 10 global and 3 regional climate model simulations using the A1B
emission scenario. If the average climate of 2000–2009 is maintained into
the future, the volume of the glacier is projected to be reduced by 30%
with respect to the present at the end of this century. If the climate
warms, as suggested by most of the climate change scenarios,
the model projects this glacier to almost disappear by the end of the
21st century. Runoff from the glacier is predicted to increase for the
next 30–40 yr and decrease after that as a consequence of the
diminishing ice-covered area. |
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