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| Titel |
On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change |
| VerfasserIn |
J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan  |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 5, no. 4 ; Nr. 5, no. 4 (2009-12-21), S.803-814 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002706
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-5-803-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to
which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The
results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and
pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide
some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future
predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing
and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for
estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The
phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes
(i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation) do, however, coincide with
areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and
these are also areas where the paleodata indicate
significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena
for the mid-Holocene may be
useful for model improvement and validation. |
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