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| Titel |
An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Sterl, H. Brink, H. Vries, R. Haarsma, E. Meijgaard |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1812-0784
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Ocean Science ; 5, no. 3 ; Nr. 5, no. 3 (2009-09-18), S.369-378 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002584
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/os-5-369-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying
country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence
system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once
every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate
change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research
points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of
data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent
extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a
17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period
1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea
with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate
model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the
SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate
10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty.
In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically
significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights
along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level
resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm
surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on
the interplay between surge and tide. |
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