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| Titel |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Crespin, H. Goosse, T. Fichefet, M. E. Mann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 5, no. 3 ; Nr. 5, no. 3 (2009-07-22), S.389-401 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002541
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-5-389-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted
with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are
constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent
compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple
data assimilation technique. Those simulations provide a reconstruction of
the climate of the Arctic that is compatible with the model physics, the
forcing applied and the proxy records. Available observational data,
proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic
climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature
over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be
the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past
warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions
show a prominent warm event during the period 1470–1520. This warm period is
likely related to the internal variability of the climate system, that is
the variability present in the absence of any change in external forcing. We
examine the roles of competing mechanisms that could potentially produce
this anomaly. This study leads us to conclude that changes in atmospheric
circulation, through enhanced southwesterly winds towards northern Europe,
Siberia and Canada, are likely the main cause of the late 15th/early
16th century Arctic warming. |
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