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| Titel |
Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives |
| VerfasserIn |
Gabi Hufschmidt, M. Crozier, T. Glade |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 5, no. 3 ; Nr. 5, no. 3 (2005-05-04), S.375-387 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002487
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-5-375-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation
in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations
have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on
risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons.
Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that:
1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence,
2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide
susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's
perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and
4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not
isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social
system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly
dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in
research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its
temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes
and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of
natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural
risks are currently available.
Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing
connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk,
since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has
suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand,
dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short
period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the
geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent
interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This
contribution reviews available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further
concepts, and gives research perspectives on a New Zealand example. |
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