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| Titel |
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected |
| VerfasserIn |
G. J. Oldenborgh, S. Drijfhout, A. Ulden, R. Haarsma, A. Sterl, C. Severijns, W. Hazeleger, H. Dijkstra |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 5, no. 1 ; Nr. 5, no. 1 (2009-01-21), S.1-12 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002242
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-5-1-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible
in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the
trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which
up to now could not be verified directly to observations on a local scale,
because the signal-to-noise ratio was too low. The observed temperature trend
in western Europe over the last decades appears much stronger than simulated
by state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due to random fluctuations,
either in fast weather processes or in decadal climate fluctuations. In winter
and spring, changes in atmospheric circulation are important; in spring and
summer changes in soil moisture and cloud cover. A misrepresentation of the
North Atlantic Current affects trends along the coast. Many of these processes
ontinue to affect trends in projections for the 21st century. This implies
that climate predictions for western Europe probably underestimate the
effects of anthropogenic climate change. |
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