| The sensitivity of
catchment runoff models to rainfall is investigated at a variety of spatial
scales using data from a dense raingauge network and weather radar. These data
form part of the HYREX (HYdrological Radar EXperiment) dataset. They encompass
records from 49 raingauges over the 135 km2
Brue catchment in south-west England together with 2 and 5 km grid-square
radar data. Separate rainfall time-series for the radar and raingauge data are
constructed on 2, 5 and 10 km grids, and as catchment average values, at
a 15 minute time-step. The sensitivity of the catchment runoff models to these
grid scales of input data is evaluated on selected convective and stratiform
rainfall events. Each rainfall time-series is used to produce an ensemble of
modelled hydrographs in order to investigate this sensitivity. The distributed
model is shown to be sensitive to the locations of the raingauges within the
catchment and hence to the spatial variability of rainfall over the catchment.
Runoff sensitivity is strongest during convective rainfall when a broader spread
of modelled hydrographs results, with twice the variability of that arising from
stratiform rain. Sensitivity to rainfall data and model resolution is explored
and, surprisingly, best performance is obtained using a lower resolution of
rainfall data and model. Results from the distributed catchment model, the
Simple Grid Model, are compared with those obtained from a lumped model, the PDM.
Performance from the distributed model is found to be only marginally better
during stratiform rain (R2 of 0.922 compared to 0.911) but significantly better
during convective rain (R2 of 0.953 compared to 0.909). The improved
performance from the distributed model can, in part, be accredited to the
excellence of the dense raingauge network which would not be the norm for
operational flood warning systems. In the final part of the paper, the effect of
rainfall resolution on the performance of the 2 km distributed model is
explored. The need to recalibrate the model for use with rainfall data of a
given resolution, particularly for periods of convective rain, is highlighted.
Again, best performance is obtained using lower resolution rainfall data. This
is interpreted as evidence for the need to improve the distributed model
structure to make better use of the higher resolution information on rainfall
and topographic controls on runoff. Degrading the resolution of rainfall data,
model or both to achieve the smoothing apparently needed is not seen as wholly
appropriate.
Keywords: rainfall, runoff, sensitivity, scale, model, flood |