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| Titel |
A stochastic space-time rainfall forecasting system for real time flow forecasting II: Application of SHETRAN and ARNO rainfall runoff models to the Brue catchment |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Mellor, J. Sheffield, P. E. O'Connell, A. V. Metcalfe |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 4, no. 4 ; Nr. 4, no. 4, S.617-626 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001883
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-4-617-2000.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Key
issues involved in converting MTB ensemble forecasts of rainfall into ensemble
forecasts of runoff are addressed. The physically-based distributed modelling
system, SHETRAN, is parameterised for the Brue catchment, and used to assess the
impact of averaging spatially variable MTB rainfall inputs on the accuracy of
simulated runoff response. Averaging is found to have little impact for wet
antecedent conditions and to lead to some underestimation of peak discharge
under dry catchment conditions. The simpler ARNO modelling system is also
parameterised for the Brue and SHETRAN and ARNO calibration and validation
results are found to be similar. Ensemble forecasts of runoff generated using
both SHETRAN and the simpler ARNO modelling system are compared. The ensemble is
more spread out with the SHETRAN model, and a likely explanation is that the
ARNO model introduces too much smoothing. Nevertheless, the forecasting
performance of the simpler model could be adequate for flood warning purposes.
Keywords: SHETRAN, ARNO, HYREX, rainfall-runoff model, Brue, real-time flow forecasting |
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