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| Titel |
A stochastic space-time rainfall forecasting system for real time flow forecasting I: Development of MTB conditional rainfall scenario generator |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Mellor, J. Sheffield, P. E. O'Connell, A. V. Metcalfe |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 4, no. 4 ; Nr. 4, no. 4, S.603-615 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001882
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-4-603-2000.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The need for the development of a method
for generating an ensemble of rainfall scenarios, which are conditioned on the
observed rainfall, and its place in the HYREX programme is discussed. A review
of stochastic models for rainfall, and rainfall forecasting techniques, is
followed by a justification for the choice of the Modified Turning Bands (MTB)
model in this context. This is a stochastic model of rainfall which is
continuous over space and time, and which reproduces features of real rainfall
fields at four distinct scales: raincells, cluster potential regions, rainbands
and the overall outline of a storm at the synoptic scale. The model can be used
to produce synthetic data sets, in the same format as data from a radar. An
inversion procedure for inferring a construction of the MTB model which
generates a given sequence of radar images is described. This procedure is used
to generate an ensemble of future rainfall scenarios which are consistent with a
currently observed storm. The combination of deterministic modelling at the
large scales and stochastic modelling at smaller scales, within the MTB model,
makes the system particularly suitable for short-term forecasts. As the lead
time increases, so too does the variability across the set of generated
scenarios.
Keywords: MTB model, space-time rainfall field model, rainfall radar, HYREX,
real-time flow forecasting |
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