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| Titel |
ESP v1.0: methodology for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States |
| VerfasserIn |
D. H. Loughlin, W. G. Benjey, C. G. Nolte |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 4, no. 2 ; Nr. 4, no. 2 (2011-04-08), S.287-297 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001654
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-4-287-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This article presents a methodology for creating
anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future
regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology
focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air
pollutants. Emission growth factors for energy system categories are
calculated using the MARKAL energy system model. Growth factors for
non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. These
factors are used to grow a 2005 emissions inventory through 2050. The
approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios for the United States.
Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2
adds a hypothetical CO2 mitigation policy. Although both scenarios show
significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these
reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy
results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both
CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play
an important role within an integrated modeling framework that supports the
US EPA's investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and
air quality. |
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