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| Titel |
Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Marsigli, A. Montani, F. Nerozzi, T. Paccagnella |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 4, no. 2 ; Nr. 4, no. 2 (2004-04-16), S.315-322 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001589
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-4-315-2004.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been
running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the
non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM) are available
every day, nested on five selected members of three consecutive 12-h
lagged ECMWF global ensembles. The limited-area ensemble forecasts range
up to 120h and LM-based probabilistic products are disseminated to
several national weather services.
COSMO-LEPS has been constructed in order to have a probabilistic system
with high resolution, focussing the attention on extreme events in regions
with complex orography. In this paper, the performance of COSMO-LEPS for a
heavy precipitation event that affected Central Europe in August 2002 has
been examined. At the 4-day forecast range, the probability maps indicate
the possibility of the overcoming of high precipitation thresholds (up to
150mm/24h) over the region actually affected by the flood. Furthermore, one
out of the five ensemble members predicts 4 days ahead a precipitation
structure very similar to the observed one. |
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