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| Titel |
Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Apel, A. H. Thieken, B. Merz, G. Blöschl |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 4, no. 2 ; Nr. 4, no. 2 (2004-04-16), S.295-308 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001587
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-4-295-2004.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment
of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties
associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the "German Research Network
of Natural Disasters" (DFNK) the working group "Flood Risk Analysis" investigated
the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in
the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood
protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented
each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different
scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process
chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex
nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood
risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components
of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results
of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty
analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically
structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory
uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability) and epistemic uncertainty
(due to incomplete knowledge of the system). The model allows us to calculate
probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected
economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e.
to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these
risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of
individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown
that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results
obtained with aleatory uncertainty alone. The model was applied to reaches of the
river Rhine downstream of Cologne. |
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