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| Titel |
How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Lotze-Campen, W. Lucht, C. Müller, A. Bondeau, P. Smith |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Model integration and development of modular modelling systems ; Nr. 4 (2005-08-09), S.23-28 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001401
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-4-23-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious
transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to
considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for
renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available
for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect
production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions.
In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially
explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation
Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its
Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). LPJ represents the global biosphere with
a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important
agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been
developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to
several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including
international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of
productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop
first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling
system. |
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