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| Titel |
Climatological aspects of the extreme European rainfall of August 2002 and a trajectory method for estimating the associated evaporative source regions |
| VerfasserIn |
P. James, A. Stohl, N. Spichtinger, S. Eckhardt, C. Forster |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 4, no. 5/6 ; Nr. 4, no. 5/6 (2004-11-18), S.733-746 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001391
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-4-733-2004.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| During the first half of August 2002, a sequence of extreme precipitation
episodes affected many regions of central and southern Europe, culminating
in one of the most severe flooding events ever experienced along sections of
the river Elbe and its tributaries. In this paper, the synoptic
meteorological situation during the primary flooding event, 11-13 August
2002, and its recent background is illustrated and discussed. Then, backward
trajectory modelling of water vapour transport is employed to determine the
sources and transport pathways of the moisture which rained out during the
event. The Lagrangian trajectory model FLEXTRA is used together with high
resolution operational meteorological analyses from the ECMWF to track a
very large number of trajectories, initialized in a dense three-dimensional
grid array over the extreme rainfall region. Specific humidity changes along
each trajectory are mapped out to yield source-receptor relationships
between evaporation and subsequent precipitation for the event. Regions of
significant surface evaporation of moisture which later rained out were
determined to be parts of the Aegean and Ligurian Seas during the initial
stages of the event, while strong evaporation from eastern European land
surfaces and from the Black Sea became dominant later on. The method also
provides precipitation estimates based solely on specific humidity changes
along Lagrangian airmass trajectories, which can be compared to ECMWF model
forecast precipitation estimates. |
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