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| Titel |
Debris-flow susceptibility assessment through cellular automata modeling: an example from 15–16 December 1999 disaster at Cervinara and San Martino Valle Caudina (Campania, southern Italy) |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Iovine, S. Gregorio, V. Lupiano |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 3, no. 5 ; Nr. 3, no. 5, S.457-468 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001243
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-3-457-2003.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| On 15–16 December 1999, heavy
rainfall severely stroke Campania region (southern Italy), triggering
numerous debris flows on the slopes of the San Martino Valle
Caudina-Cervinara area. Soil slips originated within the weathered
volcaniclastic mantle of soil cover overlying the carbonate skeleton of
the massif. Debris slides turned into fast flowing mixtures of matrix and
large blocks, downslope eroding the soil cover and increasing their
original volume. At the base of the slopes, debris flows impacted on the
urban areas, causing victims and severe destruction (Vittori et al.,
2000). Starting from a recent study on landslide risk conditions in
Campania, carried out by the Regional Authority (PAI –Hydrogeological
setting plan, in press), an evaluation of the debris-flow susceptibility
has been performed for selected areas of the above mentioned villages.
According to that study, such zones would be in fact characterised by the
highest risk levels within the administrative boundaries of the same
villages ("HR-zones"). Our susceptibility analysis has been
performed by applying SCIDDICA S3–hex
– a hexagonal Cellular Automata model (von Neumann, 1966), specifically
developed for simulating the spatial evolution of debris flows (Iovine et
al., 2002). In order to apply the model to a given study area, detailed
topographic data and a map of the erodable soil cover overlying the
bedrock of the massif must be provided (as input matrices); moreover,
extent and location of landslide source must also be given. Real
landslides, selected among those triggered on winter 1999, have first been
utilised for calibrating SCIDDICA S3–hex
and for defining "optimal" values for parameters. Calibration
has been carried out with a GIS tool, by quantitatively comparing
simulations with actual cases: optimal values correspond to best
simulations. Through geological evaluations, source locations of new
phenomena have then been hypothesised within the HR-zones. Initial volume
for these new cases has been estimated by considering the actual
statistics of the 1999 landslides. Finally, by merging the results of
simulations, a deterministic susceptibility zonation of the considered
area has been obtained. In this paper, aiming at illustrating the
potential for debris-flow hazard analyses of the model SCIDDICA S3–hex,
a methodological example of susceptibility zonation of the Vallicelle
HR-zone is presented. |
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