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| Titel |
Predicting regional recovery from acidification; the MAGIC model applied to Scotland, England and Wales |
| VerfasserIn |
C. D. Evans, A. Jenkins, R. C. Helliwell, R. Ferrier |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 2, no. 4 ; Nr. 2, no. 4, S.543-554 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000651
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-2-543-1998.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
A dynamic, process-based model of surface water
acidification, MAGIC, has been applied to over a thousand sites across the UK. The model
is calibrated to surface water samples collected during a survey for the Critical Loads
programme, and utilises the best available and consistent estimates of soil physical and
chemical properties, rainfall and runoff volumes, and deposition chemistry. A total of 698
sites were calibrated successfully. At these sites, surface water chemistry was
reconstructed from 1850 to the present day, and forecast to 2050 based on future decreases
in sulphur (S) deposition in response to the Second S Protocol.
Model outputs capture
distinct regional patterns of acidification and recovery. the most acidic present-day
conditions are found in acid-sensitive regions of Northern England (the Pennines, Lake
District and North York Moors). Although a significant proportion of sites in these areas
failed to calibrate, those that did are predicted to have experienced severe historic
decreases in acidic neutralising capacity (ANC) in response to high levels of acidic
deposition. The model also indicates significant acidification in the moderate deposition
areas of Wales and Galloway, whereas in the low deposition region of northern Scotland,
acidification has been minor even in areas of acid-sensitive geology. ANC is forecast to
recover at virtually all sites, with the greatest recovery predicted for areas currently
subject to high deposition. The model indicates that the Second S Protocol, however, will
not be sufficient to produce full recovery, with average ANC increases to 2050
counteracting just 27% of the simulated decline from 1850 to present day. Acidic
conditions (ANC < 0) are predicted to persist until 2050 at a significant number of
sites in Northern England, Wales and Galloway. |
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