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| Titel |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
| VerfasserIn |
C. F. Schleussner, K. Frieler, M. Meinshausen, J. Yin, A. Levermann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 2, no. 2 ; Nr. 2, no. 2 (2011-09-28), S.191-200 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000604
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-2-191-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple
Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled
three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to
idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive
atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project
the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the
lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained
from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate
model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 °C
warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to
11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 °C over
the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global
sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10%,
respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise
study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline
of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st
century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York
City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as
a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not
include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions. |
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