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| Titel |
Evaluation of a conceptual rainfall forecasting model from observed and simulated rain events |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Dolciné, H. Andrieu, M. N. French |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 2, no. 2/3 ; Nr. 2, no. 2/3, S.173-182 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000346
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-2-173-1998.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Very short-term rainfall forecasting models designed for runoff analysis of
catchments, particularly those subject to flash-floods, typically include one or more
variables deduced from weather radars. Useful variables for defining the state and
evolution of a rain system include rainfall rate, vertically integrated rainwater content
and advection velocity. The forecast model proposed in this work complements recent
dynamical formulations by focusing on a formulation incorporating these variables using
volumetric radar data to define the model state variables, determining the rainfall source
term directly from multi-scan radar data, explicitly accounting for orographic
enhancement, and explicitly incorporating the dynamical model components in an
advection-diffusion scheme. An evaluation of this model is presented for four rain events
collected in the South of France and in the North-East of Italy. Model forecasts are
compared with two simple methods: persistence and extrapolation. An additional analysis is
performed using an existing mono-dimensional microphysical meteorological model to produce
simulated rain events and provide initialization data. Forecasted rainfall produced by the
proposed model and the extrapolation method are compared to the simulated events. The
results show that the forecast model performance is influenced by rainfall temporal
variability and performance is better for less variable rain events. The comparison with
the extrapolation method shows that the proposed model performs better than extrapolation
in the initial period of the forecast lead-time. It is shown that the performance of the
proposed model over the extrapolation method depends essentially on the additional
vertical information available from voluminal radar. |
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