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| Titel |
Tracking cyclones in regional model data: the future of Mediterranean storms |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Muskulus, D. Jacob |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 6th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2004) ; Nr. 2 (2005-02-22), S.13-19 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000290
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-2-13-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| With the advent of regional climate modelling, there are
high-resolution data available for regional climatological change
studies.
Automatic tracking of cyclones in these datasets encounters
problems with high spatial resolution due
to cyclone substructure. Watershed segmentation, a technique from
image analysis, has been used to obtain estimates for the spatial
extent of cyclones, enabling better tracking and precipitation analysis.
In this study we have used data from a 0.5° Regional Model (REMO)
climatological
model run for the period from 1961-2099, following the International
Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) B2
forcing. The resulting hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields have been
analysed for cyclone numbers and tracks in the Mediterranean region.
According to the results, the total number of cyclones in the Mediterranean seems
to be increasing in the future, in spite of a general decrease of the
numbers of stronger systems. In Summer, the increase in each gridbox
seems to be proportional to the total number of cyclones in that box,
whereas in Winter there is a slight proportional
decrease. As concerns track properties and precipitation estimates
along tracks, no significant change could be detected. |
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