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| Titel |
Detecting trends of extreme rainfall series in Sicily |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Bonaccorso, A. Cancelliere, G. Rossi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 6th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2004) ; Nr. 2 (2005-02-21), S.7-11 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000289
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-2-7-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The objective of the study is to assess the presence
of linear and non linear trends in annual maximum rainfall
series of different durations observed in Sicily. In particular,
annual maximum rainfall series with at least 50 years of
records starting from the 1920’s are selected, and for each duration
(1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h) the Student’s t test and theMann-
Kendall test, respectively, for linear and non linear trend detection,
are applied also by means of bootstrap techniques.
The effect of trend on the assessment of the return period of
a critical event is also analysed. In particular, return periods
related to a storm, recently occurred along the East Coast of
Sicily, are computed by estimating parameters based on several
sub-series extracted from the whole observation period.
Such return period estimates are also compared with confidence
intervals computed by bootstrap. Results indicate that
for shorter durations, the investigated series generally exhibit
increasing trends while as longer durations are considered,
more and more series exhibit decreasing trends. |
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