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| Titel |
Nearest neighbour models for local and regional avalanche forecasting |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Gassner, B. Brabec |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 2, no. 3/4 ; Nr. 2, no. 3/4, S.247-253 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000287
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-2-247-2002.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper presents two avalanche
forecasting applications NXD2000 and NXD-REG which were developed at the
Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Re-search (SLF). Even both
are based on the nearest neighbour method they are targeted to different
scales. NXD2000 is used to forecast avalanches on a local scale. It is
operated by avalanche forecasters responsible for snow safety at snow
sport areas, villages or cross country roads. The area covered ranges from
10 km2 up to 100 km2 depending on the
climatological homogeneity. It provides the forecaster with ten most
similar days to a given situation. The observed avalanches of these days
are an indication of the actual avalanche danger. NXD-REG is used
operationally by the Swiss avalanche warning service for regional
avalanche forecasting. The Nearest Neighbour approach is applied to the
data sets of 60 observer stations. The results of each station are then
compiled into a map of current and future avalanche hazard. Evaluation of
the model by cross-validation has shown that the model can reproduce the
official SLF avalanche forecasts in about 52% of the days. |
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