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| Titel |
Prediction of the stochastic behaviour of nonlinear systems by deterministic models as a classical time-passage probabilistic problem |
| VerfasserIn |
L. M. Ivanov, A. D. Jr. Kirwan, O. V. Melnichenko |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 1, no. 4 ; Nr. 1, no. 4, S.224-233 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000218
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-1-224-1994.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Assuming that the behaviour of a nonlinear stochastic system
can be described by a Markovian diffusion approximation and that the evolution equations
can be reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations, a method for the
calculation of prediction time is developed. In this approach, the prediction time depends
upon the accuracy of prediction, the intensity of turbulence, the accuracy of the initial
conditions, the physics contained in the mathematical model, the measurement errors, and
the number of prediction variables. A numerical application to zonal channel flow
illustrates the theory. Some possible generalizations of the theory are also discussed. |
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