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| Titel |
Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere |
| VerfasserIn |
J. B. Elsner, A. A. Tsonis  |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 1, no. 1 ; Nr. 1, no. 1, S.41-44 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000055
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-1-41-1994.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory
is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern
Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local
approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator.
Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted
heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable
of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North
Atlantic Oscillation. |
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