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| Titel |
Detecting premonitory seismicity patterns based on critical point dynamics |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Zöller, S. Hainzl |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 1, no. 1/2 ; Nr. 1, no. 1/2, S.93-98 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000026
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-1-93-2001.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We test the
hypothesis that critical point dynamics precedes strong earthquakes in a
region surrounding the future hypocenter. Therefore, we search
systematically for regions obeying critical point dynamics in terms of a
growing spatial correlation length (GCL). The question of whether or not
these spatial patterns are correlated with future seismicity is crucial
for the problem of predictability. The analysis is conducted for
earthquakes with M > 6.5 in California. As a result, we observe
that GCL patterns are correlated with the distribution of future
seismicity. In particular, there are clear correlations in some cases,
e.g. the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake.
We claim that the critical point concept can improve the seismic hazard
assessment. |
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